China won't go to war over Spratlys, Scarborough - British author Martin Jacques

China likely won't go to war over the Spratlys nor the Scarborough Shoal, according to Martin Jacques, British author of the 2009 book, 'When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order'.

In a lecture in Manila on Monday on the rise of China, Jacques supported this assertion citing the absence of colonization in China’s history. China had a “tributary” system wherein other less powerful states literally paid tributes to the Chinese emperor in recognition of China’s superiority, but it did not colonize with actual state presence.

And in recent history, in the past couple of years when the tensions between China and the Philippines increased over the former's incursions into Philippine territory where these islands are located, China has not spoken with one voice, according to Jacques, who taught at the International Centre for Chinese Studies at Aichi University in Japan and at Renmin University in Beijing.

“China has not handled itself well because it does not know what it wants,” he said. On the one hand, it used the ancient Nine-Dash Line argument for asserting its control over large parts of South China Sea (which the Philippines prefers to call West Philippine Sea in an attempt to establish its claim over the islands). On the other, it has declared the Paracel and Spratlys groups of islands as part of the City of Sansha.

“The Chinese do not have one voice (on the issue of the islands). There are at least five voices,” he said, enumerating the various Chinese agencies that speak on the matter: the fisheries protection, coastal, state-owned oil corporation, the local government, and the Chinese Navy, which has been a “minor player” on the matter.

“The Chinese have not gotten its act together. But here’s one thing I will say, the Chinese will not go to war over these islands,” Jacques said.

He said this is unlike its position on its territorial dispute with Japan over the islands of Senkaku (according to the Japanese) or the Diaoyu (according to the Chinese) because it is about “history and the failure of Japan to apologize” for its atrocities during World War II.

Advice to the Philippines

While saying that he has “no personal view” and is “agnostic” on the question of how to handle the issue, Jacques, editor of the Communist Party of Great Britain's journal, "Marxism Today," said the Philippines should “develop a strategic relationship” with China.

He gave the example of Malaysia, which while also a claimant of parts of the Spratlys, has a “warm relationship” with China.

Jacques also said it does not serve the Philippines well to think about taking the side of the United States in the geo-political rearrangement with China’s rise and the US’s re-pivoting its military might from the Middle East and Europe toward Asia.

“The wind is not blowing in this direction,” he said. “I am not arguing that the Philippines give up its claims, but a way has to be found to deal with these questions, a way that does not involve derailing or poisoining its relationship with China because it will not get anywhere.”

Admitting that his sympathies are with China (vis-à-vis the United States), Jacques said: “Don’t lose the perspective, the big picture…Smart governments think strategically, they have a sense of the future and have a sense of what to do, know its priorities.”-Interaksyon (November 19, 2012 8:50PM)