MANILA - Beijing’s refusal to let Philippine bananas into China has more serious economic repercussions than the impeachment trial of Chief Justice Renato Corona on the economy, according to Manila’s ‘prophet of boom.’
During the Asia CEO Awards press launch, Bernardo Villegas said whether the chief justice will be convicted or not has no bearing on the Philippines' growth.
"You know I'm less concerned about Corona than bananas in China. And those bananas with the problem with China, I can assure you that China realized they cannot live without Philippine bananas. And as I read today, they are now allowing entry of Philippine bananas," he said.
"I always thought that bananas is one of the sunrise sectors of agribusiness because agribusiness is finally been given attention that it deserves," the economist said.
The impeachment trial, he said, is a political event and is important in the country's history but will not make a mark in the Philippines’ growth path since the economy has its own drivers for expansion.
The economist said continued inflows of overseas Filipino remittances of over $20 billion a year, the rise of the business process outsourcing sector and tourism will not change whether or not the sentor-judges convict the chief justice.
"If he is not convicted, people will say there is justice there. If he's convicted then the fight of the President against corruption can go on. On the part of the President, if Corona stays in the Supreme Court, mahihirapan siya to try to pursue the accusations against GMA. Yun ang kanyang thinking. But foreigners really won't mind that,” Villegas said, referring to President Benigno Aquino III’s pursuit of cases against former president and now Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
It is a different story, however, when it comes to the geo-political issues that come with the Scarborough stand-off with China, especially since the Philippines has yet to make its agribusiness sector take off, Villegas said.
He said the Philippine government should have made the development of the agribusiness sector a priority a long time ago instead of hotly pursuing industrialization, and now the services sector.
"I've been preaching for the last 40 years that we should not have gone too fast into industrialization. We should have built more farm-to-market roads, irrigation systems, everything that the small farmers need to make money. We didn't do that," he said.
Newly-appointed Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan had said that the National Economic and Development Authority under his watch will focus on agriculture and labor productivity for more inclusive growth as this would bring down the prices of food and at the same time put less pressure on increasing wages prematurely.
The Asian Development Bank earlier called on the Philippine government to focus more on the development and diversification of exports and of the entire manufacturing sector.
But some economists contend that that the country should spend for the upliftment of the services sector, especially the BPO industry, since this is where its competitive advantage lies.
Villegas, however, disagrees, saying the Philippine government can take on the three sectors despite its limited resources.
"I don't think it's an either-or. All three sectors are important. If you focus on agribusiness, remember that agribusiness is not just growing crops. It's processing, it's marketing, it's synergy between agriculture and industry then services. Everything that sells in the malls, in the supermarkets, a lot of that is food but a lot of that is services. I don't believe we have to skip one for the other. We have to focus on all three and show to the rest of the world in some sectors in all three," he said.
Alongside the agribusiness sector, the country's manufacturing sector will rise again given that China - once the darling of companies seeking cheap labor - has lost its competitive advantage in this area, the economist said.
"Napakamahal na ngayon ng wages sa China. They've been growing at 15 percent every year. And the Chinese are already regretting their one-child policy. And so a lot of manufacturing is being closed in China and they're either transferring to Vietnam, Indonesia or the Philippines. We have another opportunity in manufacturing. I'm not giving up on manufacturing," he said.
It is unfortunate that there are negative perceptions of the country abroad, Villegas said, adding that is was high time that the Philippines should be put back on the radar screen now that it has reached the "tipping point."
From hereon, the country would be growing by seven percent a year in the next 10 years, he said.
He said that it helps that the local businessmen are bullish on the economy since this encourages the foreign investors to follow and set up shop in the country. The Japanese Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines had said Canon and Brothers already set up their manufacturing plants here to churn out printers.-Interaksyon (May 25, 2 012)
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