The Association of Southeast Asian Nations members are meeting this weekend in Phnom Penh and will discuss China’s South China Sea claims.
Leaders of 10 Asean countries will meet today and Sunday before hosting leaders of eight major countries, including the United States, China, Russia and Australia in the East Asia Summit early next week.
Apart from Asean members, US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart will also be in attendance.
If Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono can rally support from other Asean members they will face the daunting task of convincing China to accept the proposal later in the summit.
Due to the rising tension in the region’s territorial disputes, Indonesia has come up with a proposal to establish a legally-binding code of conduct to build confidence and avoid the use of force between the conflicting countries.
According to a code of conduct preliminary draft proposed by Indonesia, the code of conduct aimed at “promoting confidence and preventing incidents” in the South China Sea and also “managing and resolving incidents” if they occur.
The code of conduct also guarantees the freedom of navigation above the sea.
But Bantarto Bandoro, an international relations expert from the Indonesia Defense University, said that looking at how the United States and China will try to boost their influence in the region, Indonesia would have hard time gaining consensus among the Asean members.
“Experience during the first summit earlier this year shows that Cambodia will not change its position to support China and reject any attempt to create a binding regional rule for the South China Sea,” he said.
For the first time since its establishment in 1967, the group failed to come up with a common statement or joint agreement in July’s summit in Phnom Penh after Cambodia insisted on removing any reference to the South China Sea in the final statement.
While convincing Asean members to come together is already a tough sell, persuading China could be much more difficult.
“Yudhoyono and Marty will have to work really hard if they want Indonesia to become the mediator to creating a regulation for the South China Sea,” Bantarto said.
Experts have said that issues of how to reduce tension caused by territorial disputes in terms of the South China Sea between China and four Asean members would dominate the summit. The United States and China will most likely try to boost their influence among Asean members.
“The South China Sea will continue to overshadow the summits,” Bantarto said.
Members of the Asean Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus expressed hope that Obama’s appearance would not only be about containing China and US economic opportunities, but also about pushing Myanmar toward a more genuine and open democracy.
“We hope Obama’s visit will speed up reform toward democracy and boost the prosperity of Myanmar’s people,” said Eva Kusuma Sundari of AIPMC.-The Jakarta Globe (November 17, 2012)
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